However, there is something that I passionately disagree about what is stated in your post: "This is a good thing; it's not a wonderful system still, but it's a better shit system"
This is not a better shit, it's shit that stinks more!
I agree that there are inherent limitations that are going to make any points system problematic. What this new method does though is to take the problems that existed in the old system and then multiply it. I am appalled that nobody including Cricinfo is talking about this.
The biggest flaw as you highlighted in your post is that all teams don't play all other teams. Moreover, the draw is not random. Teams like England, Australia and India will not only always play more matches but will always play each other more than they play other teams, and the series' they play against each other have more matches compared to other series'.
To summarize,
a) England, Australia, and India typically play more 'tough' series' than other teams because they play each other more and they are the stronger teams. Due to this, these teams are adversely affected both according to the older and the newer points system.
b) The series' amongst the Big 3 has more matches. This means that the proportion of difficult matches these teams play is even greater than the proportion of difficult series' they play. Because all series had the same number of points, the older system did not adversely affect these teams due to this. But because the newer system considers % of points, the Big 3 are penalized a 2nd time and hence why the new system multiplies the problem of the older system.
This was the trigger for me to model it out. I was surprised that the newer system returned results not very different to the older system. But I think, if the draw were to be different, there exists a possibility that this new system can end up being very very unfair.
Even under this draw, I expect WI to rank above SA in the new system but not in the old system. I also expect Pakistan to be the finalists whereas I would have expected it to be Australia in the older system.
Most times, I expect the new points system to unduly penalize Australia, England and Australia, and I am astonished that the Big 3 are not making more noise about this.
Hi Jarrod. It's always a pleasure reading your blog. Thanks for your posts.
I did a similar exercise about two weeks back. My model was a tad more complicated, but the logic behind it is largely the same and the results similar as well.
This is my evaluation of the difficulty of the draw:
1. England & S.A, 3. Sri Lanka, 4. Australia, 5. Bangladesh, 6. India, 7. New Zealand, 8. Pakistan, 9. West Indies.
This is my predicted rankings:
1. India - 74%, 2. Pakistan - 64%, 3. New Zealand - 62%, 4. Australia - 61%, 5. England - 57%, 6. West Indies - 39%, 7. SA - 33%, 8. Sri Lanka - 31%, 9. Bangladesh - 8%.
Due to the easy draw, I expect India to definitely make it to the final. Close fight between Pakistan, New Zealand and Australia for the 2nd place.
However, there is something that I passionately disagree about what is stated in your post: "This is a good thing; it's not a wonderful system still, but it's a better shit system"
This is not a better shit, it's shit that stinks more!
I agree that there are inherent limitations that are going to make any points system problematic. What this new method does though is to take the problems that existed in the old system and then multiply it. I am appalled that nobody including Cricinfo is talking about this.
The biggest flaw as you highlighted in your post is that all teams don't play all other teams. Moreover, the draw is not random. Teams like England, Australia and India will not only always play more matches but will always play each other more than they play other teams, and the series' they play against each other have more matches compared to other series'.
To summarize,
a) England, Australia, and India typically play more 'tough' series' than other teams because they play each other more and they are the stronger teams. Due to this, these teams are adversely affected both according to the older and the newer points system.
b) The series' amongst the Big 3 has more matches. This means that the proportion of difficult matches these teams play is even greater than the proportion of difficult series' they play. Because all series had the same number of points, the older system did not adversely affect these teams due to this. But because the newer system considers % of points, the Big 3 are penalized a 2nd time and hence why the new system multiplies the problem of the older system.
This was the trigger for me to model it out. I was surprised that the newer system returned results not very different to the older system. But I think, if the draw were to be different, there exists a possibility that this new system can end up being very very unfair.
Even under this draw, I expect WI to rank above SA in the new system but not in the old system. I also expect Pakistan to be the finalists whereas I would have expected it to be Australia in the older system.
Most times, I expect the new points system to unduly penalize Australia, England and Australia, and I am astonished that the Big 3 are not making more noise about this.
Hi Jarrod. It's always a pleasure reading your blog. Thanks for your posts.
I did a similar exercise about two weeks back. My model was a tad more complicated, but the logic behind it is largely the same and the results similar as well.
This is my evaluation of the difficulty of the draw:
1. England & S.A, 3. Sri Lanka, 4. Australia, 5. Bangladesh, 6. India, 7. New Zealand, 8. Pakistan, 9. West Indies.
This is my predicted rankings:
1. India - 74%, 2. Pakistan - 64%, 3. New Zealand - 62%, 4. Australia - 61%, 5. England - 57%, 6. West Indies - 39%, 7. SA - 33%, 8. Sri Lanka - 31%, 9. Bangladesh - 8%.
Due to the easy draw, I expect India to definitely make it to the final. Close fight between Pakistan, New Zealand and Australia for the 2nd place.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ikFV_2tav6ftN_HlXbZ96lZW7Xmel5AY/view?usp=sharing
I think you got mixed up here with new zealand's draw -
"This time they have seven Tests against top-five ranked teams, and while England might suit them, Pakistan and Australia will be tough. "
New Zealand aren't playing Australia at all in this wtc - looks like you mistook india for Australia there
Btw what a travesty that Aus are not touring new zealand for the next two years, they haven't toured new zealand since 2016